trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $51 | +$37 | +73% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +49% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Aug 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| China x Philippines military clash by December 31? | Aug 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| China x India military clash by December 31? | Aug 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? | Aug 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Was Kanye hacked? | Aug 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch? | Aug 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before October? | Aug 27 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | Aug 27 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana reach $230 August 25–31? | Aug 27 | $1 | $0 | +26% |
| Will Solana reach $230 in August? | Aug 27 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? | Aug 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? | Aug 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K August 25–31? | Aug 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin before October? | Aug 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China before September? | Aug 26 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? | Aug 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +7.5% | -2.8% | 67% | 67% | -20.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +7.5% | -2.8% | 67% | 67% | -20.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +7.5% | -2.8% | 67% | 67% | -20.6% |
| all | 19 | -59.9% | -63.7% | 21% | 21% | -31.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -63.7% | 21% | -31.2% |
| 10% | -67.2% | 16% | -37.8% |
| 15% | -70.4% | 11% | -43.8% |
| 20% | -73.3% | 5% | -49.3% |