Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C0 0xc0c9…eac8 crypto 529 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$854 (-2%) realized −$843 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%437W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$126
tech 7% −$385
other 7% −$52
sports 6% −$312
finance 6% −$100
world 1% +$45
culture 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 67% +15.1%
≤30d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 93% 38% -0.2%
≤90d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 93% 38% -0.2%
all 525 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 29% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 29% -11.2%
10% -19.9% 13% -19.7%
15% -27.6% 9% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$70 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$843
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses437 / 88
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)525 / 529
History coverage204d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? Up 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $54 $45 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$20 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $49 +$28 +57%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $48 +$1 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $40 +$7 +18%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $34 +$7 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$19 +129%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$11 +42%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 17 $22 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 17 $18 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 17 $17 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 17 $17 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 17 $12 +$5 +41%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 17 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 07 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 07 $91 +$38 +42%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 07 $79 +$11 +14%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 07 $72 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 07 $59 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $74 7h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $74 7h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $77 7h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $49 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 100¢ $49 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 98¢ $48 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 39h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $41 39h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $34 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 13d
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 13d
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $65 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 19d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 19d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.23 · official $315.40 (match) · 1234 history records