Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0c4…8129 other 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,484 (+2%) realized +$14,484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate68%182W / 85L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$2,629per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$3,453
politics 26% $0
sports 6% +$812
crypto 0% +$26
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -23.4% -30.7% 61% 16% -9.2%
≤30d 142 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 19% -9.0%
≤90d 267 -13.2% -21.5% 68% 15% -9.0%
all 267 -13.2% -21.5% 68% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 15% -9.0%
10% -29.0% 10% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -35.8% 6% -25.6%
20% -42.1% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,030) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$31 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses182 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$2,629
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $1,826 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $741 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $577 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $9,288 +$148 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 +69%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $315 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $80 −$79 -98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $163,850 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $363 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $769 +$10 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $412 −$308 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2,116 +$653 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $412 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,847 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $906 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,177 +$296 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $655 +$95 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $329 −$302 -92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $481 +$319 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $402 +$98 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $4,753 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $58 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $123 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $553 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $796 +$204 +26%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,015 −$15 -2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10,486 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2,624 +$31 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $4,286 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $364 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $361 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $270 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $108 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $105 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $389 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $120 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $120 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $155 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $81 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $57 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $52 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records