Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0c4…4e66 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$322 (-13%) realized −$320 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$129
14 days−$275
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$277
crypto 4% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 70% -16.4%
≤30d 14 -12.4% -20.8% 64% 57% -21.3%
≤90d 15 -10.0% -18.6% 67% 60% -19.9%
all 15 -10.0% -18.6% 67% 60% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 60% -19.9%
10% -26.3% 33% -27.6%
15% -33.5% 20% -34.6%
20% -40.0% 7% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$140 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$320
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage42d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $301 +$37 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $302 +$63 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$58 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$137 +135%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 23 $91 +$22 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $338 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $365 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $260 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $239 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $114 35d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $91 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.28 · official $298.28 (match) · 26 history records