Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc0c2…eaad crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+12%) realized +$16 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 8 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 50% -0.1%
≤90d 8 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 50% -0.1%
all 8 -10.9% -19.4% 62% 50% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 50% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 25% -9.6%
15% -34.1% 0% -18.4%
20% -40.6% 0% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 33¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 24 history records