Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0c1…18c7 sports 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,132 (-16%) realized −$2,128 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%84W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,127
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 63 -54.0% -58.4% 19% 19% -74.1%
all 177 -7.2% -16.1% 47% 45% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 45% -24.3%
10% -24.1% 43% -31.5%
15% -31.4% 37% -38.2%
20% -38.1% 33% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$68 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized−$2,128
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses84 / 93
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage213d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $433 $429 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 May 14 $13 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $1 $0 -40%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $9 +$9 +99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 08 $5 +$1 +31%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 07 $4 +$6 +129%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 07 $5 +$15 +280%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 03 $554 −$549 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $31 −$16 -52%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5 May 02 $221 −$220 -100%
Pacers vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5 May 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors May 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) May 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5 May 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic May 02 $129 +$33 +26%
Knicks vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 May 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) May 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-17.5) May 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers May 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 02 $43 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5 May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Heat (-13.5) May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder May 02 $16 −$6 -36%
Jazz vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5 May 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-5.5) May 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-15.5) May 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) May 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-4.5) May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5 May 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5 May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies May 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns May 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks May 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $438 2h
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 67¢ $7 42d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 59¢ $0 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 43d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $5 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Timberwolves $1 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 11¢ $1 43d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 46¢ $5 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 50¢ $5 44d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 44d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 45d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 95¢ $18 45d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $9 45d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 BUY Under $2 47d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $5 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 31¢ $5 48d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 48d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 35¢ $5 48d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 49d
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 49d
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 49d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 51¢ $31 53d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 53d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 51¢ $19 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.66 · official $428.66 (match) · 651 history records