Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0c0…482a crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$180 (+20%) realized +$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$44
other 30% −$18
sports 16% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -2.1%
≤30d 15 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -2.1%
≤90d 15 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -2.1%
all 15 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 60% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 60% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 60% -11.5%
15% -22.9% 47% -20.0%
20% -30.5% 47% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$54 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$55 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $127 +$33 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $125 −$124 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $29 +$30 +100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $124 +$76 +61%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $98 +$102 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $20 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $30 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $10 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $64 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $53 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $98 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records