Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0c0…1506 sports 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,940 (-2%) realized −$1,939 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%136W / 92L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$872est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$5,708
14 days−$4,841
30 days−$2,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,506
other 2% −$376
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -19.9% -27.6% 50% 31% -67.1%
≤30d 116 -10.0% -18.6% 61% 44% -11.9%
≤90d 220 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 45% -11.3%
all 228 -2.9% -12.2% 60% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 46% -11.0%
10% -20.6% 29% -19.5%
15% -28.3% 14% -27.3%
20% -35.3% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$149 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$1,939
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses136 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$872
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage233d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 78¢ $118 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $154 +$23 +15%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 +$37 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$17 -22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$6 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$19 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$36 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$6 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $49 +$19 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$11 -55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -57%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $22 +$13 +58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$54 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $22 −$14 -63%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $11 −$4 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 +$3 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$5 -55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$6 -35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$14 -35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$8 +50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$26 -52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$8 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $411 −$377 -92%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$1 -74%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$7 -40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$71 -71%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$17 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$13 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,006 −$857 -85%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $852 +$52 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5,147 −$4,468 -87%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,125 −$261 -23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $638 +$304 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $118 42m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $91 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $29 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $38 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 60¢ $59 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $37 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $131 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $8 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $8 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $111 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $75 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.75 · official $117.75 (match) · 1199 history records