Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C0 0xc0c0…4aab crypto 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,783 (+29%) realized +$4,783 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%301W / 284L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$26
14 days+$85
30 days+$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$4,403
finance 3% +$36
other 2% +$25
world 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +11.3% +0.7% 77% 32% -8.3%
≤30d 120 +4.3% -5.6% 53% 35% +2.7%
≤90d 341 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 40% +0.0%
all 585 +12.2% +1.5% 51% 41% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 41% +3.3%
10% -8.2% 34% -6.6%
15% -17.1% 27% -15.6%
20% -25.2% 23% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,783
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses301 / 284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)585 / 585
History coverage219d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 585 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $114 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $114 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $119 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $123 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$17 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $97 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $64 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $173 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $74 +$49 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $129 −$32 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$48 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $22 +$18 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2357 history records