Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C0 0xc0bf…40be crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+5%) realized +$99 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%31W / 18L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$8
other 17% $0
weather 2% +$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +3.0% -6.8% 63% 59% -9.1%
≤30d 49 +3.0% -6.8% 63% 59% -9.1%
≤90d 49 +3.0% -6.8% 63% 59% -9.1%
all 49 +3.0% -6.8% 63% 59% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 59% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 55% -17.8%
15% -23.9% 41% -25.7%
20% -31.3% 33% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$33 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses31 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 55¢ 60¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $61 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$68 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $77 +$44 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$63 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$25 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$10 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $150 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $73 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $37 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $41 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $33 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.50 · official $22.95 · 130 history records