Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0bd…4fe0 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-21%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2
other 38% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.8% -13.8% 43% 43% -16.9%
≤30d 14 -4.8% -13.8% 43% 43% -16.9%
≤90d 14 -4.8% -13.8% 43% 43% -16.9%
all 14 -4.8% -13.8% 43% 43% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -16.9%
10% -22.1% 43% -24.8%
15% -29.6% 36% -32.1%
20% -36.5% 29% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +278%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 +$8 +197%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +37%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $4 9m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 10m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $9 10m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 91¢ $13 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.78 · official $19.78 (match) · 23 history records