Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0b8…a030 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$375
sports 42% −$436
crypto 5% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 51% -9.9%
≤30d 37 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 51% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 51% -9.9%
all 37 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 51% -9.9%
10% -25.0% 49% -18.5%
15% -32.2% 41% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 35% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$31 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$38 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$26 -88%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$55 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $155 +$12 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 +$22 +22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$4 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $88 +$47 +53%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $32 −$31 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 +$68 +91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $93 +$24 +26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -96%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $48 −$46 -96%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $80 +$25 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$95 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$4 +63%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$27 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$7 -17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$34 +42%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$21 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$20 +54%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$6 +226%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $86 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $82 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $99 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $88 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $143 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $75 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records