Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0b6…162b crypto 500 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%261W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$30
14 days−$43
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$110
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +5.6% -4.5% 40% 29% -20.2%
≤30d 267 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 42% -14.5%
≤90d 500 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 37% -15.3%
all 500 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 37% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 37% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 26% -23.4%
15% -31.5% 17% -30.8%
20% -38.2% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses261 / 239
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 1684 history records