Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0b6…e72b politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$227 (-0%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,003per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$67
other 36% +$44
sports 16% −$209
economics 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 2% -9.6%
all 136 -2.9% -12.2% 15% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 11% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 10% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 9% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,537) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$15 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage130d
Avg bet$1,003
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $649 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,704 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,883 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $3,244 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,485 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $774 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $257 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 04 $353 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $308 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,832 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,379 −$4 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 21 $843 −$843 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,462 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,292 −$3 -0%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 05 $984 +$872 +89%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,735 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,926 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3,123 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,799 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $863 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $882 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $883 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $786 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $787 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $596 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $596 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $570 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $571 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $767 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $768 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $959 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $960 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $859 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $860 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $919 18d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $920 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $885 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $664 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $665 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $697 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $698 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records