Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0b2…a23d crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,519 (+6%) realized +$1,398 · open +$121
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate89%59W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$358
7 days+$358
14 days+$358
30 days+$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$779
other 22% +$377
sports 7% +$196
tech 5% +$52
politics 2% +$20
world 2% +$35
economics 2% +$97
weather 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.3% +6.1% 100% 50% +6.0%
≤30d 5 +23.3% +11.5% 100% 60% +9.0%
≤90d 28 +5.5% -4.5% 89% 32% -1.9%
all 66 +8.4% -1.9% 89% 32% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 32% -4.3%
10% -11.3% 14% -13.5%
15% -19.9% 6% -21.8%
20% -27.8% 3% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$80 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$2,324
Realized+$1,398
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses59 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)66 / 74
History coverage484d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $603 $703 +$100 (+17%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $526 $569 +$43 (+8%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $320 $317 −$2 (-1%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $265 $244 −$21 (-8%)
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $147 $163 +$16 (+11%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $164 $161 −$3 (-2%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 69¢ $139 $125 −$14 (-10%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $606 +$60 +10%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $567 +$39 +7%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $234 +$51 +22%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $680 +$208 +31%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $264 +$124 +47%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 24 $111 +$12 +11%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $222 +$33 +15%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $246 +$87 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 11 $1,196 +$38 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 11 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le May 08 $333 +$34 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 08 $1,032 +$9 +1%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-04? Apr 19 $77 +$4 +5%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 19 $77 +$5 +6%
Spread: Kristiansund BK (-1.5) Apr 19 $104 +$2 +2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March? Apr 19 $177 +$5 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 19 $546 +$35 +6%
Spread: Beşiktaş JK (-2.5) Apr 06 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $77 +$26 +34%
Spread: FC Famalicão (-2.5) Apr 05 $69 +$1 +1%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $77 +$4 +5%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $77 +$7 +10%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $77 +$13 +16%
Spread: FC Twente '65 (-2.5) Apr 05 $377 +$21 +6%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-04-04? Apr 02 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $732 +$53 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $100 −$50 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21? Mar 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 16? Mar 20 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 06 $77 +$27 +34%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $1,100 +$4 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Feb 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 03 $200 +$41 +20%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $491 +$97 +20%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? Feb 03 $1,200 +$57 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 11 $10 +$48 +482%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 05 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $336 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 05 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 02 $54 +$7 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 02 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 02 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 02 $334 +$73 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 02 $900 +$29 +3%
Will Unidad por Chile hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies? Nov 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $95 31m
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 1h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 1h
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 1h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $322 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 91¢ $378 20h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 91¢ $77 20h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 91¢ $77 25h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 91¢ $10 25h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 94¢ $265 26h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 91¢ $64 26h
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $151 27h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $512 25d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $609 36d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $529 36d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $680 36d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $55 36d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $82 36d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $82 36d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $71 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $10 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $97 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $154 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $194 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $97 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $97 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $194 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? BUY No 97¢ $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,323.73 · official $2,323.75 (match) · 181 history records