Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc0b1…460f crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$271 (-4%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%85W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$232
14 days−$306
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$116
sports 7% −$250
other 5% −$151
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.5% -36.2% 40% 33% -45.2%
≤30d 20 -33.0% -39.4% 35% 30% -44.8%
≤90d 20 -33.0% -39.4% 35% 30% -44.8%
all 121 -9.4% -18.1% 70% 43% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 43% -13.2%
10% -25.9% 20% -21.5%
15% -33.1% 12% -29.1%
20% -39.6% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses85 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage220d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $91 −$4 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $205 −$204 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $127 +$33 +26%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$50 -62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$32 -89%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 07 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 07 $30 +$2 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $60 +$1 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 10 $26 −$19 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 10 $99 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 08 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 34 and 35 million Jan 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 32 and 33 million Jan 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Dec 21 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 07 $20 +$3 +15%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 07 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 07 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 30 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 30 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 30 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 30 $33 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 29 $20 −$18 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 51m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND W BUY 56¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U BUY 63¢ $75 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $49 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $29 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U BUY 63¢ $5 1h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $57 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $60 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $164 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $86 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.26 · official $94.25 · 340 history records