Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0aa…e095 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+1%) realized +$145 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 54L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
politics 19% −$8
other 11% +$40
sports 3% +$125
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 13 -15.4% -23.5% 15% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 58 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 16% -8.7%
all 77 +5.2% -4.9% 30% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 17% -9.0%
10% -14.0% 17% -17.7%
15% -22.3% 16% -25.6%
20% -29.9% 16% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage599d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $84 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $203 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $15 +$12 +86%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $399 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $413 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $214 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $195 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $207 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $201 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $13 +$8 +62%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $13 +$1 +10%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $14 +$9 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 44m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 24h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 35h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $6 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $41 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $43 29d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $43 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $11 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.00 · official $178.00 (match) · 287 history records