Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc0a8…fd45 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$601 (+7%) realized +$601 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$564per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$43
sports 38% +$2,075
world 0% −$9
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.8% +11.1% 73% 73% +12.2%
≤30d 15 +22.8% +11.1% 73% 73% +12.2%
≤90d 15 +22.8% +11.1% 73% 73% +12.2%
all 15 +22.8% +11.1% 73% 73% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 73% +12.2%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 53% +1.4%
15% -9.2% 40% -8.4%
20% -18.1% 33% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$113 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.48 per $1 lost it wins $5.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$601
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$564
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,926 +$1,589 +82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 −$118 -23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$9 -21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,507 +$195 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,321 +$487 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,717 −$171 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $160 −$155 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $143 +$17 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $86 +$57 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,515 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,926 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $232 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $155 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,110 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,702 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,807 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,311 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,263 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,202 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $283 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $160 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records