Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C0 0xc0a7…795b other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$17 (-12%) realized +$40 · open −$57

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-50.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-45.1%	-50.3%	50%	0%	-40.3%
≤30d	2	-45.1%	-50.3%	50%	0%	-40.3%
≤90d	2	-45.1%	-50.3%	50%	0%	-40.3%
all	2	-45.1%	-50.3%	50%	0%	-40.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.3%	0%	-40.3%
10%	-55.1%	0%	-46.0%
15%	-59.4%	0%	-51.2%
20%	-63.4%	0%	-56.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$20 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.15 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized+$40

Unrealized−$57

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	39¢	11¢	$80	$23	−$57 (-71%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	89¢	89¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	+$3	+10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25?	Jun 25	$20	−$20	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	39¢	$81	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	95¢	$20	21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	87¢	$12	22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25?	BUY Yes	80¢	$20	22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	89¢	$10	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.44 · official $33.44 (match) · 7 history records