Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc0a7…6528 crypto 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+2%) realized +$129 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%134W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$8
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$26
other 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 53% -9.7%
≤30d 246 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 53% -8.2%
≤90d 246 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 53% -8.2%
all 259 +5.3% -4.8% 52% 51% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 51% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 51% -18.0%
15% -22.2% 51% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 51% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses134 / 125
Open positions3
Markets (closed)259 / 262
History coverage288d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 54¢ 69¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+29%)
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Up 49¢ 47¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$18 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$17 +82%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$48 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$32 -32%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$42 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$26 +81%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +81%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$31 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$31 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$27 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$41 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$27 +104%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$26 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$41 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$41 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$45 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$33 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$15 +104%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$39 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$13 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $38 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 12h
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 17h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.44 · official $53.42 · 788 history records