Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc0a6…39b5 world 32 markets active 19h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$9
other 16% −$1
crypto 6% $0
politics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 19% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 19% 0% -11.5%
all 32 -2.7% -12.0% 31% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -11.2%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage459d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $3 $0 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $29 −$5 -16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 −$2 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 31 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $12 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $24 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $3 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $9 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $24 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $24 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $25 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records