Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc0a4…f0ea sports 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$751 (-2%) realized −$750 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate66%173W / 90L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$223
14 days−$223
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$271
other 34% −$433
crypto 8% −$620
world 0% −$35
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 35% -45.6%
≤30d 136 -12.2% -20.5% 52% 33% -11.4%
≤90d 137 -12.3% -20.7% 52% 33% -12.4%
all 263 -5.5% -14.5% 66% 33% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 33% -11.0%
10% -22.7% 18% -19.6%
15% -30.1% 13% -27.3%
20% -37.0% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$43 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$750
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses173 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage143d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 66¢ 64¢ $64 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $57 +$60 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -73%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $12 +$7 +58%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 +$33 +91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$25 -65%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $1 $0 -28%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 02 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +53%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $52 −$48 -92%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $15 +$20 +128%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $25 −$22 -89%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kansas City Current vs. Boston Legacy FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $102 +$105 +103%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $237 −$108 -46%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Will CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano end in a draw? Jun 01 $21 +$2 +9%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $401 +$21 +5%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $25 −$23 -91%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $6 −$3 -47%
Will Angel City FC vs. North Carolina Courage end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 −$8 -74%
Will North Carolina Courage win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -39%
Will CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$4 -71%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $100 +$12 +12%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $121 +$9 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $20 −$6 -30%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $452 −$19 -4%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 66¢ $65 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 14¢ $1 3h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 14¢ $1 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 10h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 51¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 52¢ $3 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $19 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $17 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $12 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 91¢ $14 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.45 · official $62.45 (match) · 835 history records