Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc0a0…11ef culture 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,278 (+108%) realized +$4,337 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$33
14 days+$658
30 days+$4,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 42% +$3,520
finance 29% +$321
other 18% +$450
politics 6% −$20
world 3% −$110
sports 1% +$26
crypto 1% −$35
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -59.5% -63.3% 22% 22% -3.1%
≤30d 41 +84.2% +66.7% 39% 37% +108.5%
≤90d 46 +67.5% +51.6% 35% 33% +102.4%
all 59 +55.6% +40.8% 42% 36% +84.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.8% 36% +84.7%
10% +27.3% 32% +67.1%
15% +15.0% 25% +50.9%
20% +3.7% 25% +36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +130% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +155% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$25 · ×8.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$4,337
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage242d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 29? No 44¢ 21¢ $110 $52 −$59 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 26? Jun 27 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on June 26? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $370? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $415? Jun 26 $185 +$65 +35%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 24? Jun 24 $110 +$142 +130%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 22? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$101 +102%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$76 +322%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $318 +$185 +58%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 15? Jun 15 $465 +$285 +61%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $345? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 10? Jun 10 $77 +$173 +224%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $2.50? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $230? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 11 above $380? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 3? Jun 10 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 3? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 8? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $580? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 5? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 4? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 1 above $245? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$728 +2722%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 8? Jun 08 $339 +$2,640 +778%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? Jun 05 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 1 above $137? Jun 05 $12 +$88 +748%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $600? Jun 05 $18 +$232 +1329%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 5? Jun 05 $219 +$31 +14%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 5? Jun 05 $214 +$52 +24%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $450? May 28 $62 −$19 -30%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 25 above $230? May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $6.00? May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $200? May 11 $17 −$15 -90%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $225? May 11 $29 −$10 -36%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Nov 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 28 $20 −$18 -92%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 28 $116 +$11 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 24? Nov 25 $50 +$31 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 29? BUY No 44¢ $113 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 26? BUY No 15¢ $16 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 26? BUY No 22¢ $23 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 26? BUY No 32¢ $33 3d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on June 26? BUY No 15¢ $39 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 25? BUY No 11¢ $11 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? BUY No 5¢ $6 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 25? BUY No 5¢ $7 4d
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 24? BUY No 43¢ $110 5d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $415? BUY No 74¢ $185 6d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $370? BUY No 7¢ $17 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 22? BUY No 15¢ $16 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? BUY No 7¢ $7 7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $24 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $51 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $48 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $82 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $60 13d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $59 13d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $59 13d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $58 13d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $155 14d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $155 14d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $155 14d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $23 14d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? BUY No 17¢ $18 17d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? BUY No 17¢ $18 17d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? BUY No 12¢ $12 17d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? BUY No 4¢ $5 18d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? BUY No 11¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.88 · official $51.88 (match) · 176 history records