Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc09f…a561 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 54L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$12
other 15% −$11
politics 9% −$8
sports 3% +$54
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.4% -22.6% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 55 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 9% -8.5%
all 68 -3.2% -12.4% 21% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 7% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 6% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage606d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $118 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $137 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $266 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $138 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $257 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $129 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $18 +$8 +46%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 13h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $8 23h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 27h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 28h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $16 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.02 · official $90.02 (match) · 299 history records