Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc09f…d9d0 sports 318 markets active 5d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$344 (-6%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%119W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$85
14 days−$110
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$302
crypto 40% −$94
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 32% -17.1%
≤30d 80 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 28% -19.2%
≤90d 166 -32.9% -39.3% 31% 25% -22.7%
all 318 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 31% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 31% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 24% -24.6%
15% -37.0% 18% -31.9%
20% -43.2% 14% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses119 / 199
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage115d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$3 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$4 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$3 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2667 history records