Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C0 0xc09e…e4cd crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$780 (-1%) realized −$780 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%44W / 4L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,140per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$989
7 days−$933
14 days−$933
30 days−$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$89
sports 16% +$129
other 4% −$999
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -10.8% -19.3% 86% 14% -19.5%
≤30d 14 -10.8% -19.3% 86% 14% -19.5%
≤90d 27 -9.1% -17.8% 89% 7% -12.5%
all 48 -5.0% -14.1% 92% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 4% -10.8%
10% -22.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -27.1%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,477) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$305 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses44 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,140
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,340 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,001 +$48 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,001 +$35 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $315 +$7 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1,001 +$25 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $302 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $1,529 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $1,526 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $1,518 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $1,511 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $1,506 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $1,493 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $1,490 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $1,486 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $1,477 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $1,463 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $1,459 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $1,457 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $533 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $922 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $1,452 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $1,443 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $1,436 +$7 +0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $1,435 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $1,434 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $1,431 +$3 +0%
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Mar 05 $1,404 +$26 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $1,403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $1,519 −$116 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $1,517 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1,074 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $1,458 +$56 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $1,752 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $1,140 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $1,438 +$1 +0%
Stoke City FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 25 $1,392 +$46 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $1,388 +$4 +0%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 4.5 Feb 25 $1,381 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $1,378 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $115 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,340 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,049 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1,001 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $103 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $273 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $564 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $200 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1,001 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,011 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $315 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $315 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $302 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,001 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,529 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? SELL No 100¢ $1,529 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,526 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,526 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,518 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,518 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,511 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $816 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records