Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc09d…dd5d other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$98 (-0%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$25
politics 20% −$6
sports 4% −$68
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -8.4% -17.1% 6% 3% -9.9%
all 110 -8.4% -17.1% 6% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -25.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -32.3% 3% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage88d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 42¢ 40¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $502 −$1 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $247 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $405 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $723 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $442 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $444 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $436 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $460 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $443 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $444 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $488 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $226 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 3h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $41 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $11 7h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $109 42h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 47h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 8d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.26 · official $131.26 (match) · 312 history records