Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc09b…f1ee sports 39 markets active 6h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$17 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$25
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$174
other 33% −$117
crypto 13% +$11
world 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 48% -3.9%
≤30d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 42% -4.1%
≤90d 26 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 42% -4.1%
all 26 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 42% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% -4.1%
10% -18.0% 38% -13.3%
15% -26.0% 38% -21.6%
20% -33.2% 35% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 82¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+37%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $106 +$11 +10%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 25¢ $10 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: A BUY $5 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $51 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 13¢ $5 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Urug BUY 13¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 39h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Spread: Ger BUY 55¢ $35 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $25 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $25 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden BUY $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? A BUY $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 16¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Scotland BUY 18¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.79 · official $235.12 · 56 history records