Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc09a…ecbc other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$5
politics 28% −$5
finance 12% −$1
sports 9% −$1
culture 7% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$738) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage85d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $59 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 27 $1,098 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $751 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $14 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,160 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $13 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,123 2h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 100¢ $772 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 3h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 3h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 100¢ $325 3h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 100¢ $1,098 3h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 40d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 40d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $42 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? SELL No 100¢ $14 40d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 40d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $22 40d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $21 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 40d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 42d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 42d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 42d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 42d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 42d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 43d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $737 43d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records