Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc097…7797 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$8
sports 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Igor Matanović: 3+ goals No 100¢ 99¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals No 100¢ 88¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Ivan Toney: 3+ goals No 99¢ 88¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rafael Leão: 3+ goals Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals Jun 17 $100 +$1 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Agustín Canobbio: 3+ goals Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ assists Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Igor Matanović: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Ivan Toney: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Cédric Bakambu: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $70 4h
Rafael Leão: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $150 4h
Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $100 20h
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $120 21h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $120 34h
Agustín Canobbio: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 47h
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.49 · official $238.49 (match) · 22 history records