Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C0 0xc095…c1c5 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$32 (+7%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$58
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$23
sports 11% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.9% +37.4% 80% 60% +19.5%
≤30d 14 +12.6% +1.9% 36% 29% +1.7%
≤90d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 22% -9.2%
all 18 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 22% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 22% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 22% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 22% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage36d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +61%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$25 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $26 +$38 +144%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$21 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $26 +$30 +114%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 11 $27 −$6 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 11 $27 −$7 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $27 −$5 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$5 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $11 −$4 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $27 −$11 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 12? Jun 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 75¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 43¢ $26 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $30 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 39¢ $26 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $25 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 49¢ $26 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $56 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 44¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? SELL No 10¢ $21 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? SELL No 13¢ $20 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL No 16¢ $21 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? SELL No 90¢ $24 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 18¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY No 16¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY No 11¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $25 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? SELL No $6 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL No $7 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes $16 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $24 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 48¢ $24 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No $11 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $25 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY No $11 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 47¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records