Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C0 0xc094…ca4e other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,232 (+29%) realized +$1,232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$656
7 days−$998
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$926
sports 7% +$1,023
world 3% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -49.9% -54.7% 23% 23% -31.0%
≤30d 15 +35.0% +22.1% 33% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 15 +35.0% +22.1% 33% 33% -7.4%
all 15 +35.0% +22.1% 33% 33% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 33% -7.4%
10% +10.4% 33% -16.3%
15% -0.3% 33% -24.4%
20% -10.0% 20% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +117% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$185 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,686 −$1,204 -71%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 −$94 -47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,173 +$449 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $200 +$370 +186%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $72 +$33 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$22 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $119 −$117 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $120 −$98 -81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $168 +$742 +442%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 +$248 +731%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 25¢ $482 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $685 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,001 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 20¢ $107 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $201 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $101 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,623 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $329 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $347 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $497 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $570 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $105 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 68¢ $72 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $73 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $99 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $119 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $101 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $168 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $282 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $34 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records