Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc092…f8d8 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$349 (+8%) realized +$346 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%34W / 18L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days+$298
14 days+$340
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$412
sports 39% −$160
crypto 3% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 61% +1.6%
≤30d 52 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 65% -2.3%
≤90d 52 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 65% -2.3%
all 52 -1.7% -11.1% 65% 65% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 65% -2.3%
10% -19.6% 54% -11.7%
15% -27.3% 40% -20.2%
20% -34.5% 23% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$53 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$346
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses34 / 18
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage13d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 62¢ 66¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $192 +$114 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $161 −$160 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 +$100 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$32 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$59 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$13 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $111 +$23 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $115 +$46 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 +$13 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $221 +$24 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $565 +$257 +46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $231 +$25 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$33 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $321 +$55 +17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $413 +$156 +38%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $334 −$330 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 89¢ $14 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $306 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $15 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $20 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 40h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 58¢ $20 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 65¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $50 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $27 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $134 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.27 · official $153.27 (match) · 115 history records