Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc092…0cd9 sports 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,862 (-2%) realized −$3,713 · open −$149
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%122W / 180L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$729per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,550
7 days+$2,085
14 days+$1,203
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,036
politics 15% −$6,296
other 12% +$4,140
culture 2% −$1,891
world 0% +$520
tech 0% +$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.2% +4.2% 71% 71% +8.3%
≤30d 22 +34.7% +21.9% 45% 45% -11.7%
≤90d 136 -61.9% -65.6% 15% 15% -53.7%
all 302 -8.0% -16.7% 40% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -11.2%
10% -24.7% 38% -19.7%
15% -32.0% 35% -27.4%
20% -38.6% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$718) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$803 vs −$567 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$2,654
Realized−$3,713
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses122 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions3
Markets (closed)302 / 306
History coverage692d
Avg bet$729
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 40¢ 38¢ $2,000 $1,935 −$65 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $476 $485 +$9 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $327 $235 −$92 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,587 −$2,550 -99%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $1,429 +$714 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,431 +$1,355 +95%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,041 +$2,070 +101%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $1,011 +$297 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $360 −$352 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,775 +$550 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $894 −$882 -99%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $736 −$716 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $549 +$1,234 +225%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 29 $369 −$360 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $812 +$788 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $821 −$809 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $2,825 −$2,294 -81%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 27 $1,006 −$992 -99%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $1,190 +$260 +22%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $507 −$500 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $452 +$438 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $248 −$243 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $508 −$500 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $206 +$2,462 +1198%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $238 −$232 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $287 +$496 +172%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $500 −$490 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 01 $492 −$484 -98%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $990 −$983 -99%
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $4,369 +$2,887 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $1,820 +$1,680 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $2,111 +$718 +34%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $236 −$236 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 16 $1,460 −$1,460 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 13 $364 −$364 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $1,175 +$1,317 +112%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $367 +$338 +92%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 12 $637 +$330 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 05 $295 +$336 +114%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 400k and 500k? Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k? Apr 04 $37 −$37 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? Apr 04 $1,534 −$1,534 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $344 −$344 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 29 $1,207 +$307 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Mar 29 $1,033 +$2,939 +285%
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? Mar 28 $942 +$634 +67%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 28 $718 −$718 -100%
Spread: Lions (-7.5) Mar 25 $335 −$335 -100%
UFC 319: Barboza vs. Klose Mar 25 $165 −$165 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Mar 25 $528 −$528 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $1,018 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $1,035 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $1,552 20h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $1,018 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain ( BUY 12¢ $42 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $336 2d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 66¢ $1,429 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $538 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 77¢ $65 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 77¢ $418 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 77¢ $527 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 27¢ $360 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $893 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,031 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Spurs 51¢ $1,050 6d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1,775 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $490 8d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $894 11d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $736 15d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ $369 19d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 30¢ $549 19d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $812 19d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $183 19d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Thunder 50¢ $638 19d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder 18¢ $98 21d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder 37¢ $203 21d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder 54¢ $94 21d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder 63¢ $611 21d
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) BUY Thunder 73¢ $4 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,654.20 · official $2,654.20 (match) · 1321 history records