Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc090…d267 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+8%) realized +$73 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$26
14 days−$16
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$54
other 34% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -17.1% -25.0% 58% 58% -17.6%
≤30d 49 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 59% -0.4%
≤90d 49 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 59% -0.4%
all 49 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 59% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 59% -0.4%
10% -17.0% 45% -9.9%
15% -25.0% 39% -18.6%
20% -32.3% 27% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage26d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $37 +$6 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +119%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 +$10 +118%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $109 +$23 +21%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $82 +$27 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $43 18m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $37 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $35 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $30 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $24 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 33h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 34h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $20 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 45h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $10 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $10 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.49 · official $75.49 (match) · 101 history records