Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc08e…e45f crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$36 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 50% +2.7%
≤90d 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 50% +2.7%
all 10 +37.0% +23.9% 80% 50% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.9% 50% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here +12.1% 30% -7.1%
15% +1.2% 20% -16.1%
20% -8.7% 10% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.77 per $1 lost it wins $20.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 39¢ 26¢ $96 $63 −$32 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$17 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 39¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.83 · official $66.83 (match) · 48 history records