Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C0 0xc08d…6a83 sports 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-7%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%144W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$8
sports 49% −$131
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 7 -14.2% -22.4% 86% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 34 +46.2% +32.3% 82% 9% -9.4%
all 280 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 42% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 42% -16.8%
10% -19.8% 41% -24.8%
15% -27.5% 41% -32.1%
20% -34.6% 40% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses144 / 136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 280
History coverage222d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 24? May 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 18? Apr 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? Apr 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April Apr 18 $2 +$3 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 16 Apr 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? Apr 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 9? Apr 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 10? Apr 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C or higher on April 8 Apr 09 $32 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 4? Apr 04 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 1? Apr 04 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? Apr 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or higher on April 1? Apr 04 $20 +$2 +9%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Chelsea: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 28? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 28? Apr 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28? Apr 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 29? Mar 29 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 29? Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 29? Mar 29 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 28 Mar 28 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 28 Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-12.5) Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5 Mar 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Mar 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Celtics vs. Suns: O/U 207.5 Mar 15 $2 +$2 +92%
1H Spread: Hornets (-4.5) Mar 15 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Mar 15 $2 +$2 +96%
Spread: Warriors (-1.5) Mar 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 Mar 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-4.5) Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $49 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $49 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $47 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 43d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $37 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 45d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 46d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 49d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 51d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 51d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 51d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 51d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 51d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 57d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 57d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 57d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 57d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 65d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April BUY No 2¢ $0 70d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April BUY No 2¢ $0 70d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 70d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 70d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April SELL No 6¢ $5 70d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April BUY No 2¢ $0 70d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April BUY No 2¢ $0 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.68 · official $48.68 (match) · 460 history records