Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc088…b421 politics 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%85W / 6L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$4
crypto 32% −$1
politics 5% +$2
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
world 3% +$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 91 +0.4% -9.2% 93% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses85 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage554d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BNB dip to $300 in May? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 21? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 22? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 12? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 14? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 29? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 28? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 29? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 21? Apr 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 20? Apr 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 20? Apr 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 10? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 Apr 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 7? Apr 08 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 30? Mar 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $62 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15? Oct 16 $5 $0 +0%
Houthi strike on Israel by October 15? Oct 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 11 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on October 31? Oct 11 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting? Oct 11 $919 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on October 31? Oct 11 $1,402 −$1 -0%
Will Trump rename Greenland 'Red, White, and Blueland' before July? Jun 23 $4 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate cut in May meeting? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Trump pauses all reciprocal tariffs other than China before Wednesday? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? Apr 07 $3 $0 +1%
Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government? Apr 07 $3 $0 +1%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $8 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed before April? Apr 07 $10 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Syria before April? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $24 33d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $16 33d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $38 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $27 43d
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $28 48d
Will BNB dip to $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 48d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 57d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 57d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 57d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 100¢ $24 57d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $16 57d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $36 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $18 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 BUY No 100¢ $81 75d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $81 76d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 7? BUY No 99¢ $62 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 85d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $38 100d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $62 125d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 125d
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $102 141d
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $102 142d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $87 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.45 · official $53.45 (match) · 201 history records