Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc086…b1af crypto 805 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62,215 (-17%) realized −$62,215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%276W / 529L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$143
14 days+$143
30 days−$42,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$59,715
other 1% −$3,935
tech 0% −$968
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 60% +20.0%
≤30d 126 -30.3% -36.9% 35% 30% -78.1%
≤90d 198 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 30% -73.9%
all 805 -17.0% -24.9% 34% 33% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 33% -26.2%
10% -32.1% 31% -33.3%
15% -38.7% 29% -39.7%
20% -44.7% 27% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$507 vs −$387 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62,215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses276 / 529
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)805 / 805
History coverage261d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 805 Trades
no open positions (444 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $154 +$92 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $128 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $156 +$177 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET Jun 04 $44 +$21 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $479 −$435 -91%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $415 −$138 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $52 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $73 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $75 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $59 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$25 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 8? Jun 03 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Jun 03 $970 −$970 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 10? Jun 03 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? Jun 03 $1,602 −$996 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 7? Jun 03 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 9? Jun 03 $1,517 −$1,517 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 20? Jun 03 $645 −$645 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? Jun 03 $607 −$607 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 5? Jun 03 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 27? Jun 03 $3,166 −$3,166 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? Jun 03 $1,143 −$1,143 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 15? Jun 03 $904 −$904 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21? Jun 03 $3,102 −$3,102 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on March 17? Jun 03 $4,804 −$4,804 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on March 17? Jun 03 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Jun 03 $1,785 −$1,785 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? Jun 03 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26? Jun 03 $2,121 −$2,121 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 7? Jun 03 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? Jun 03 $2,056 −$2,056 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $90 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $42 +$93 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $37 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 03 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $57 +$25 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 03 $65 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $11 +$45 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $246 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $333 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $156 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $65 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $44 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $276 17d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 3¢ $278 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $197 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $40 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $41 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $78 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $60 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $98 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $75 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2305 history records