Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C0 0xc080…3f16 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,106 (+3%) realized +$2,104 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%139W / 8L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$8
tech 20% +$34
finance 13% −$27
sports 12% +$2,096
world 2% −$22
politics 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 37 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 102 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 147 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 2% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -6.4%
10% -17.6% 2% -15.3%
15% -25.5% 1% -23.5%
20% -32.8% 1% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×22.7 per $1 lost it wins $22.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$3,638
Realized+$2,104
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses139 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)147 / 154
History coverage210d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,780 $2,781 +$1 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $438 $438 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $203 $202 −$1 (-0%)
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $199 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of th Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$290 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $292 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 15 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Jun 15 $490 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $150? Jun 15 $730 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 15 $1,400 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 03 $1,502 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 02 $187 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2,400 +$2 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $284 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $99 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of May 25 above $290? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of th May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $900 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $500 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $140? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w May 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $60? May 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $349 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $448 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading May 25 $621 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $362 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $5.50? May 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 Week of May 18 2 May 22 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $150? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 18 above $475? May 22 $300 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $326 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2,600 −$8 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the May 19 $181 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $2,800 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $210? May 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 11 2026? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $100? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $1,200 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15? May 15 $222 −$41 -19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $1,500 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 12 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $500 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 24h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,780 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $438 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $292 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $45 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $102 15d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $688 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $7 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $192 16d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of SELL No 100¢ $52 16d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of SELL No 100¢ $135 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 17d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $187 17d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $490 17d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $150? BUY No 100¢ $730 17d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $292 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 99¢ $158 17d
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 97¢ $58 17d
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$290 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 97¢ $63 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,502 17d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 18d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,637.97 · official $3,637.97 (match) · 520 history records