Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc080…d161 crypto 718 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$783 (-17%) realized −$666 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%132W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -28.1% -34.9% 7% 7% -34.0%
≤30d 238 -16.6% -24.5% 22% 21% -19.5%
≤90d 718 -16.8% -24.8% 18% 17% -19.4%
all 718 -16.8% -24.8% 18% 17% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 17% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 16% -27.1%
15% -38.5% 15% -34.2%
20% -44.6% 14% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses132 / 586
Open positions0
Markets (closed)718 / 718
History coverage61d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$9 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$17 +419%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$18 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$25 +618%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records