Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

C0 0xc07f…d095 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$442 (+6%) realized +$406 · open +$36

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$302per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+7.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	22	+18.7%	+7.4%	50%	50%	-3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.4%	50%	-3.7%
10%	-2.9%	50%	-12.9%
15%	-12.3%	50%	-21.3%
20%	-20.9%	45%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$580) neutral

Persistence

early +24% → late +13% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$314 vs −$274 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage

Net worth$112

Realized+$406

Unrealized+$36

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage178d

Avg bet$302

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Under	51¢	74¢	$76	$112	+$36 (+47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Mar 13	$35	−$35	-100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks	Jan 22	$660	−$660	-100%
Nuggets vs. Wizards	Jan 22	$310	−$310	-100%
Clippers vs. Bulls	Jan 21	$580	+$420	+72%
Heat vs. Pacers	Jan 11	$160	+$340	+212%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	Jan 10	$780	−$780	-100%
Clippers vs. Nets	Jan 10	$630	+$370	+59%
Hawks vs. Nuggets	Jan 10	$520	+$480	+92%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies	Jan 10	$670	+$330	+49%
76ers vs. Magic	Jan 09	$200	−$200	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves	Jan 09	$560	+$440	+79%
Pacers vs. Hornets	Jan 09	$380	+$620	+163%
Lakers vs. Spurs	Jan 07	$145	−$145	-100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30?	Dec 30	$71	−$71	-100%
Warriors vs. Raptors	Dec 28	$620	−$620	-100%
Nets vs. Timberwolves	Dec 28	$17	+$83	+488%
Knicks vs. Hawks	Dec 28	$66	+$34	+52%
Bucks vs. Bulls	Dec 28	$46	+$54	+117%
Mavericks vs. Kings	Dec 28	$220	+$280	+127%
Jazz vs. Spurs	Dec 27	$86	−$86	-100%
Nuggets vs. Magic	Dec 27	$61	−$61	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Rockets	Dec 27	$41	−$41	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$31	21m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$46	1h
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	35¢	$35	102d
Warriors vs. Mavericks	BUY Warriors	66¢	$660	152d
Nuggets vs. Wizards	BUY Wizards	31¢	$310	152d
Clippers vs. Bulls	BUY Bulls	58¢	$580	154d
Heat vs. Pacers	BUY Pacers	32¢	$160	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$82	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$117	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$339	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$2	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$4	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$1	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$2	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$1	164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	BUY Timberwolves	39¢	$233	164d
Thunder vs. Grizzlies	BUY Thunder	67¢	$670	164d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$130	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$4	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$20	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$20	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$154	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$16	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$19	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$15	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$19	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$17	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$29	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$23	165d
Clippers vs. Nets	BUY Clippers	63¢	$5	165d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.75 · official $106.50 · 81 history records