Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc079…3576 other 22 markets active 5d ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$35 (-5%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$10
other 23% +$10
finance 16% −$25
world 15% −$20
tech 7% +$11
sports 5% −$3
weather 1% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.9% +20.3% 75% 62% -5.9%
≤30d 8 +32.9% +20.3% 75% 62% -5.9%
≤90d 15 +9.5% -1.0% 67% 53% -19.1%
all 22 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 50% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 50% -15.0%
10% -15.8% 32% -23.1%
15% -23.9% 23% -30.5%
20% -31.4% 18% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage133d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$35 +138%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$8 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 2 Apr 22 $5 −$3 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 18 $43 −$40 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $36 +$8 +22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 01 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $24 +$7 +31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 29 $23 +$2 +7%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $50 −$28 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 07 $70 −$19 -28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 02 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 28 $61 +$11 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 21 $48 +$11 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 17 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 07 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 96¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $26 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 17d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 53¢ $3 59d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 2 SELL Yes 49¢ $3 59d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 2 BUY Yes 51¢ $3 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL Yes $3 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 81¢ $43 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL Yes 50¢ $44 71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 75d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL Yes 53¢ $37 77d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $24 80d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 92¢ $23 83d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $23 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL Yes 37¢ $51 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 107d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $69 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $69 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 85¢ $59 116d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $59 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records