Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc073…a9b0 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,369 (+10%) realized +$1,433 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$712per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$6,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$527
30 days+$1,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1,735
other 18% −$8
crypto 15% −$365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 6 +17.8% +6.6% 50% 17% +7.6%
≤90d 6 +17.8% +6.6% 50% 17% +7.6%
all 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 14% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 14% +7.1%
10% -17.4% 14% -3.1%
15% -25.3% 14% -12.5%
20% -32.7% 14% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$662 vs −$140 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$6,357
Realized+$1,433
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)7 / 20
History coverage318d
Avg bet$712
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $2,138 $1,774 −$365 (-17%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $1,000 $1,250 +$250 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $783 $796 +$13 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $401 +$101 (+34%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $225 $384 +$159 (+71%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $360 +$10 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $325 $280 −$45 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $250 $221 −$29 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $225 $212 −$12 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $225 $122 −$103 (-46%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $112 −$38 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,001 +$2 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $551 −$114 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $575 −$400 -70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $550 +$1,591 +289%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $5,025 +$393 +8%
Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Aug 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $362 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $421 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1,000 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $811 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $192 16h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $73 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 6d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 11d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $232 11d
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 12d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $232 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,357.02 · official $6,359.05 (match) · 90 history records