Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C0 0xc073…e630 world 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% $0
other 12% −$11
politics 6% $0
sports 4% +$5
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.4% +24.3% 25% 12% -9.8%
≤30d 13 +23.2% +11.4% 38% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +23.2% +11.4% 38% 8% -9.5%
all 29 +5.2% -4.8% 48% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 7% -10.3%
10% -13.9% 7% -18.9%
15% -22.3% 7% -26.7%
20% -29.9% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage468d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $125 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $79 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 -1%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-06? Mar 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Mar 05 $15 +$6 +43%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Mar 04 $15 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 13m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $44 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $43 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $39 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $43 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $43 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $44 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $27 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $34 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records