Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C0 0xc06b…76dd sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$14 (+6%) realized −$11 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤90d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
all 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 100% +13.8%
10% +2.9% 100% +2.9%
15% -7.0% 0% -7.0%
20% -16.1% 0% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 49¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ 59¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ 83¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 1h
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $50 2h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $51 3h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 79¢ $50 11h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.85 · official $224.85 (match) · 6 history records