Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C0 0xc06b…fedb sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$23 (-17%) realized −$21 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-16.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-8.0%	-16.8%	33%	33%	-28.4%
≤30d	6	-8.0%	-16.8%	33%	33%	-28.4%
≤90d	6	-8.0%	-16.8%	33%	33%	-28.4%
all	6	-8.0%	-16.8%	33%	33%	-28.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.8%	33%	-28.4%
10%	-24.7%	33%	-35.2%
15%	-32.0%	33%	-41.5%
20%	-38.7%	33%	-47.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized−$21

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	45¢	36¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-19%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	Yes	42¢	39¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	+$9	+177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$25	−$19	-76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$30	−$24	-80%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$10	−$2	-23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$40	+$21	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	42¢	$6	7m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	58m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$14	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	17¢	$6	2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$5	3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$25	5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	10¢	$6	28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	SELL Under	28¢	$8	33h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$10	33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$30	36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$62	47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.66 · official $13.66 (match) · 13 history records