Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc065…8778 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+13%) realized +$51 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +1.6%
≤30d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +1.6%
≤90d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +1.6%
all 6 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 67% +1.6%
10% -14.9% 50% -8.1%
15% -23.1% 33% -17.0%
20% -30.7% 33% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $43 $35 −$8 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 +$20 +23%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$34 +110%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$39 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $43 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $55 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $89 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $89 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $29 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.99 · official $34.99 (match) · 15 history records