Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C0 0xc063…ce06 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%22W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$19
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$24
crypto 23% +$3
tech 8% +$1
world 7% $0
sports 7% −$4
culture 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 23 -4.1% -13.2% 96% 0% -9.3%
all 23 -4.1% -13.2% 96% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$640) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$663
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses22 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage80d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $293 $293 −$0 (-0%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $232 −$0 (-0%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $662 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $651 +$12 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $648 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Jun 15 $285 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $641 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 13 $236 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$1 +0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 07 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in May? Jun 02 $260 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 01 $180 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 25 $640 +$1 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $314 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $330 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $643 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $392 $0 +0%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 22 $640 +$3 +0%
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Apr 10 $639 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $232 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $293 1h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $662 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $8 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $461 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $182 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $648 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $363 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $285 12d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $641 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $236 15d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $336 18d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $307 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $171 23d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 23d
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in May? BUY No 99¢ $260 30d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $180 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 30d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY No 100¢ $640 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 88¢ $5 37d
Will San Marino win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $314 46d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $330 46d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 100¢ $643 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $392 59d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $250 59d
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $640 69d
Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $639 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $663.07 · official $663.07 (match) · 50 history records