Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C0 0xc061…a297 sports 584 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$375 (-2%) realized −$377 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%346W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$106
14 days+$21
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$402
other 26% −$4
crypto 6% +$43
world 4% +$114
finance 4% −$128
politics 4% +$4
tech 3% +$38
economics 1% +$1
weather 1% −$72
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +39.1% +25.9% 82% 82% +24.8%
≤30d 77 -0.7% -10.2% 57% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 215 +0.1% -9.4% 58% 49% -12.1%
all 569 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 46% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% -11.3%
10% -19.1% 34% -19.8%
15% -27.0% 24% -27.5%
20% -34.1% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses346 / 223
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions12
Markets (closed)569 / 584
History coverage364d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $8 $12 +$5 (+58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 25 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 25 $10 +$13 +125%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $14 +$26 +186%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $15 +$5 +32%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $13 +$7 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $12 +$6 +50%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $114 +$43 +38%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $37 +$12 +33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $10 +$9 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$41 -84%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 +$4 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $64 −$49 -77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $28 +$32 +117%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $72 +$39 +55%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $10 $0 -3%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $47 +$3 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $16 $0 -3%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $27 +$5 +20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 08 $20 −$20 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $18 +$12 +67%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $37 +$3 +9%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $24 +$6 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $44 +$34 +77%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $29 +$2 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $21 −$6 -28%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $16 −$11 -69%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 +$8 +76%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $13 +$6 +47%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $9 +$11 +129%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $12 +$13 +112%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $42 +$33 +79%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by between 5% an Jun 03 $13 +$5 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 44¢ $10 34h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $13 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 76¢ $31 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 36¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $13 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $49 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $15 4d
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $12 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $13 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 36¢ $8 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $98 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $9 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 52¢ $10 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 91¢ $57 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $37 7d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $7 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $7 9d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $8 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 18¢ $8 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $110 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 33¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.87 · official $248.87 (match) · 1966 history records